Basic Probability Lesson Plans and Lesson Ideas

Basic Probability

What are the chances you are a math ace? Find out in this BrainPOP movie, in which Tim and Moby review the ins and outs of probability! You’ll learn all about what probability means, why we study it, and how to express a probability on paper. Using dice as an example, Tim will show you how to determine the number of possible outcomes in a random event. You’ll also learn how to use a grid to figure out probabilities in more complex situations. Probabilities aren’t just for predicting dice rolls - the principles you’ll learn are the basis for predictions in all kinds of complex systems, from the stock market to the weather! Odds are you’ll get a lot out of this movie!

Probability and Data Analysis Lesson Plan: What Are the Chances?

In this lesson plan, which is adaptable for grades 3-12, students review probability and data analysis skills learned throughout a unit of study. Students then create a paper-based or digital activity that challenges classmates to apply data analysis, graphing, and/or probability skills to fictitious or real-world situations. See more »

Math Skills Lesson Plan: It’s All Fun and Games

In this lesson plan which is adaptable for grades 3-12, students work collaboratively to research selected math skills. Students then create, play, and assess a math game that is designed to apply and reinforce their selected math concept. This lesson plan is aligned to Common Core State Standards. See more »

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Basic Probability Common Core State Standards Alignments

Grade: 06

CCSS.Math.Content.6.RP.A.1

Understand the concept of a ratio and use ratio language to describe a ratio relationship between two quantities. For example, “The ratio of wings to beaks in the bird house at the zoo was 2:1, because for every 2 wings there was 1 beak.” “For every vote candidate A received, candidate C received nearly three votes.”

Grade: 06

CCSS.Math.Content.6.SP.A.1

Recognize a statistical question as one that anticipates variability in the data related to the question and accounts for it in the answers. For example, “How old am I?” is not a statistical question, but “How old are the students in my school?” is a statistical question because one anticipates variability in students’ ages.

Grade: 06

CCSS.Math.Content.6.SP.B.5

Summarize numerical data sets in relation to their context, such as by:

Grade: 06

CCSS.Math.Content.6.SP.B.5a

Reporting the number of observations.

Grade: 06

CCSS.Math.Content.6.SP.B.5b

Describing the nature of the attribute under investigation, including how it was measured and its units of measurement.

Grade: 07

CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.6

Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.

Grade: 07

CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.7

Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.

Grade: 07

CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.7b

Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?

Grade: 07

CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.5

Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.

Grade: 07

CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.8

Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation.

Grade: 07

CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.8a

Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.

Grade: 07

CCSS.Math.Content.7.SP.C.8b

Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., “rolling double sixes”), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.

Grade: 09, 10, 11, 12

CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-IC.A.1

Understand statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population.

Grade: 09, 10, 11, 12

CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-CP.A.1

Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or,” “and,” “not”).

Grade: 09, 10, 11, 12

CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-CP.A.2

Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.

Grade: 09, 10, 11, 12

CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-CP.A.5

Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.

Grade: 09, 10, 11, 12

CCSS.Math.Content.HSS-MD.B.7

(+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).

Lesson Ideas

Basic Probability

Probability and Data Analysis Lesson Plan: What Are the Chances?

Math Skills Lesson Plan: It’s All Fun and Games

Recent Basic Probability Quizzes

Probability

Combinations Challenge Problem

Fractions and Probability Intro

Related printables

Academic Standards

Basic Probability Common Core State Standards Alignments

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